Staying on Schedule for the Long Term

Weather predictions

I'm not sure what the weather will be in 10 days. I can check the forecast online, but it will only be a forecast. Weather predictors have gotten better, with better information and technology, but they still can't avoid the unforeseen events that can affect the weather - a low pressure cell stalls or moves faster or is diverted 200 miles north or south.

Predicting the schedule for a long term Project can be similar. Will I really finish the work on or before July 12, 2013? Who knows? So what DO we do?

We must manage and measure in the short term. Once our overall schedule is prepared, we have to track the short term to have a chance of getting to the long term end date. In some industries, "short term" may mean one week or maybe a 3-5 week period. (Some highly critical Projects manage schedules on a daily basis - reviewing several times each day.)

Why is this necessary? 

• We can only predict with reasonable certainty our near-term outcomes. 
• Managing the shorter-duration schedule gives us fewer tasks to juggle.
• As work in completed on-time, sooner than scheduled, and later than scheduled, the adjustments we have to make are easier because the number of activities is smaller.

[There is debate about the real value of a Master Schedule. Those in the traditional PM world will argue that they are a necessity. Others say that because of the tricks that can be played in software (forcing an outcome), the long term Master Schedule is almost worthless. Whichever side we take, the truth is the same. Your Master Schedule may be technically and electronically perfect. However, the entire schedule can only be validated as "true" at the end of the project when exact Start and Finish dates have been entered and when all logic changes have been applied.]


Why not just follow the Critical Path?

What about the Critical Path? That chain of schedule activities that represent the least flexible route to the END. If the critical path is correct, a delay in one of the activities in that chain likely will delay the entire project (Yes, I know. We can insert workarounds to overcome the delay, but this can build to other issues).

Some believe that as long as we are staying on schedule with the Critical Path items, we are going to be okay. There are at least two issues with that method especially for long term schedules. First, do we have the "real" critical path or do we have a forced path? (Many managers and supervisors have learned enough about the idea of "critical path" that they like to say that THEY know what the critical path is without being told by any program!) Second, while we are ignoring the work that is not critical, "critical" changes. It changes because something that shouldn't have driven the work gets so off track that it now shifts the definition of what is critical. So, I argue that the critical path can be an important idea, but it is not the solution to everything.

Focus on everything - in the short term

Instead, we need to focus on all of the work - but keep the focus on the near term. The exact method can vary. Many use a simple spreadsheet or a checklist to track short schedules. Then, they integrate the results into the larger Master Schedule. Some don't bother with a separate program or document. They track everything in the Master Schedule software.

It is best to use the Master only as a guide for short term planning and scheduling. The short-term schedule, as a separate tool, can give more detail and can allow workers and managers to have a better understanding of what is to be done and to see what comes next. This is often when the "true" schedule will appear.

An item in the Master may be 25 days long. Using the earlier example about weather forecasting, even 25 days is a long time. If that 25-day task is broken down into it's pieces or steps, we can better answer two questions:
1. Can we really be done in 25 days if everything goes well?
2. When we compile the detailed tasks, how long will it really take?
With this more detailed plan, we may see that we should be completed in a shorter or longer time than 25 days.

Shift the power to a lower level

It's not just about managing the short term work. It's also about who is involved in the work. Should the Project Manager or Team Leader or Area Manager or Supervisor control (or try to control) everything that happens? No.

Allow and insist that those who are closest to the task have some ownership in managing the work. As a minimum, let them participate in the work of expanding longer activities into manageable work tasks. Some will need some guidance. They'll be too detailed or too general at first. They'll learn as they go. Help them. Give them ownership AND responsibility and the results will be better.

So, will it rain four weeks from today? I don't know. But, there is a good chance of it raining tomorrow.